The industry generally, fertilizer industry is a long live industry, over the years will fail, but the resource is very limited, if not indefinitely the blind expansion of production capacity, 000 years, may be less than 100 years, the domestic fertilizer industry will encounter ".
The raw material of chemical fertilizer will be difficult to last for a hundred years
This year, as the overcapacity is more and more obvious, the industry appeals for the country to extend the off-season tariff period, or even cancel the call for export duties. However, the production and utilization of chemical fertilizers are all resource products, and these resources can only last a hundred years according to the current consumption.
For urea, the only raw material is natural gas and coal, and the reserves of the resources are not optimistic. Lu Yongxiang, the dean of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, pointed out: "according to the proven reserves and output in 2002, China's coal can be mined for 105 years, and natural gas can be exploited for about 45 years, and oil can be exploited for about 20 years." Without coal and natural gas, the development of urea will not be able to talk about it.
Even if China is a globally recognized rock country, but resources are limited, and China's phosphate fertilizer production has stabilized at around 14 million 500 thousand tons, duration is not optimistic. Yunnan phosphorus chemical industry association chairman Tao Junfa through the investigation and analysis, China's annual consumption of phosphate 66 million 200 thousand tons, if increasing the utilization rate of consumption, will be controlled at 60 million tons, according to the calculation of the end of 2005 Chinese identified more than 16 billion 700 million tons of phosphate ore resources reserves, the average P2O5 content of 16.95%, by choosing to receive about 70.8 tons the goods can only supply China's phosphate, phosphate fertilizer, yellow phosphorus, calcium and other feed processing industry after 118 years.
Overcapacity intensifies the exhaustion of resources
One side is going to depleted resources, while the domestic fertilizer enterprises in order to survive and calls for national release export, overcapacity has not only related to the development of the health industry, but related to the sustainable development of resources, after all, if things go on like this the depletion of resources, accelerate the chemical fertilizer.
There is a large amount of export, which means the excess capacity of the related chemical fertilizer products in China. As shown in Figure 2, with the most obvious excess urea, even though our country has set up export tariffs, China gold investment three year exports recently in more than 3 million tons. The total export volume of two diammonium phosphate and monophosphate also remained at over 1 million 300 thousand tons. In 2009, it reached 3 million 80 thousand tons, and exports accounted for 1/3 of the total output.
Based on several years of data, found that the urea production capacity of 2004-2009 years were 4300, 4450, 5245, 5572, 5857, 65 million 560 thousand tons, while domestic consumption over the same period were 3565, 4100, 4250, 4600, 4900, 51 million tons of excess capacity reached 735, 350, 995, 972 957 and 14 million 560 thousand tons, the excess is very obvious. (see Figure 3) according to the fertilizer association statistics, by the end of June 2010 the urea production capacity has reached 66 million 980 thousand tons, only the first half and increase the production capacity of 1 million 420 thousand tons. If the excess capacity flows to the international market, it is actually pressurized for domestic energy that has been worse.
Although the excess phosphate fertilizer is not as serious as nitrogen fertilizer, the surplus is becoming more and more obvious since the implementation of the self-sufficiency of domestic phosphate fertilizer in 2005. According to the investment adviser released "2010-2015 China phosphate fertilizer industry investment analysis and forecast report" shows, 2001-2009, phosphate fertilizer production in China were 739, 776, 880, 1003, 1075, 1226, 1257, 1258, 14 million 800 thousand tons, while domestic fertilizer apparent consumption in 2006 amounted to 12 million tons, fluctuation are between 1000-1150 million tons in recent years.
The excess capacity of compound fertilizer is self-evident, it is reported that the current national fertilizer production license issued by about 4500, is expected to produce more than 2 tons of production capacity, but according to the consumption of potassium fertilizer to calculate the annual output of phosphate fertilizer in recent three years, the largest compound fertilizer production is only 55 million tons in 2007 and 2008. In 2009 were 52 million tons and 54 million tons, only the operating rate of 25%.
The basic requirement of the development of Agriculture
It is the top priority for the development of the industry to keep limited resources at home, and to make full use of limited resources and maximize the useful life of resources.
The statistics of the Ministry of land and resources show that during the 2004-2008 years, the arable land area of our country has decreased greatly. The cultivated land area in 2004 is 1 billion 836 million 670 thousand mu, which is 12 million 4 thousand and 500 mu less than that in 2003. After that, the area of cultivated land has been reduced. It was not until 2009 that only 4 million 35 thousand mu of cultivated land increased in China, but 6 million 890 thousand Mu was reduced in 2009 compared with 2004.
Limited cultivated land determines the limitation of domestic fertilizer consumption, and with the continuous improvement of fertilizer utilization technology, the demand for chemical fertilizer may even decline. Professor Zhang Fusuo Dean of China Agricultural University College of resources and environment through a lot of research pointed out that if the current utilization rate (nitrogen, phosphorus and potassium utilization rate was 30%, 50%, 70%), because the population is still growing, fertilizer demand will continue to increase in 2030, the highest demand of chemical fertilizer could reach 49 million 861 thousand and 400 tons of nitrogen fertilizer, phosphate fertilizer is 14 million 771 thousand and 300 tons, 16 million 380 thousand tons of potash fertilizer; but domestic fertilizer utilization can be greatly improved, if the utilization rate can be increased by 1 percentage points, you can reduce 1 million 991 thousand and 900 tons of chemical fertilizer, if organic nutrient proportion can increase by 1 percentage points, the national fertilizer consumption will be reduced by 1 million 221 thousand and 200 tons.
Experts predict that China's fertilizer demand will fall back when it reaches its maximum in 2020. In the context of continuous popularization of soil testing and fertilizer application in China, it is believed that the inflection point of the fertilizer demand will come earlier, and the capacity will be more controlled. The resources of chemical fertilizer production are not renewable in a certain sense, and scientific and orderly development will be the criterion of macro regulation. As a Chinese agriculture country will be in a very long time will not change, so the importance of fertilizer industry for agricultural production obviously, based on domestic demand, to ensure the sustainable development of Chinese agriculture must become a long-term goal of the development of chemical fertilizer industry.